CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 10W (Maysak)…is located approximately 301 NM south-southwest of Busan, South Korea Tropical Cyclone 11W (Haishen)…is located approximately 336 NM south of Iwo To, JapanNortheast Pacific
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Central Pacific
Here’s a satellite image of this area
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 10W (Maysak)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, the environment continues to be favorable for development with robust radial outflow aloft, warm sea surface temperatures and continued high ocean heat content…however wind shear has increased moderately to 10-15 knots.
Typhoon Maysak will track poleward, and continue weakening due to cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasing wind shear throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
By 12 hours, the system will weaken to 105 knots and further to 95 knots by 24 hours, due to the degrading environmental conditions.
After tracking generally northward through 24 hours, the system will make landfall on the southern coast of South Korea west of Busan. The storm will continue weakening to 70 knots by 36 hours as it moves inland due to the frictional effects of land and very high >50 knot wind shear.
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Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, the storm is heading southwest at near 05 knots, and will continue on this track through 12 hours, with minimal intensification to 50 knots due to the marginal environment…turning west-northwestward thereafter.
Additionally, the environment will become favorable for development after 12 hours, with wind shear values decreasing below 10 knots. This low wind shear coupled with continued very warm sea surface temperatures will lead to gradual intensification to 105 knots by 72 hours.
Beyond 72 hours, TS 11W will begin to track northwestward, while steadily intensifying to 120 knots by 96 hours, due to continued favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures.
After making landfall over Hokkaido, the system will weaken slightly to 105 knots due to the frictional effects of land.
Satellite image of this area
