CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Norbert)…is located about 385 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)…is located about 281 miles southwest of Yokosuka, Japan
Tropical Cyclone 17W…is located about 358 NM east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam
Northeast Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Norbert)
NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION
What the computer models are showing
According to the NHC advisory 18…The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Norbert is expected to dissipate by Sunday night.
>>> Dry air continues to limit shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a small low pressure system located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so as the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Thereafter, strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Central Pacific
Here’s a satellite image of this area
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Chan-Hom)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, TS 16W is now passing through an unfavorable environment for continued development, with high 30+ knot wind shear, offset slightly by warm sea surface temperatures and robust outflow aloft
TS 16W is forecast to track east- northeastward through the next 24 hours. Continued high wind shear will lead to further weakening to 45 knots by this time. Wind shear will remain high and lead to further weakening despite warm sea surface temperatures to 35 knots by 48 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 17W
TD 17W is tracking through an environment which is overall favorable for development, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and established equatorward upper level outflow.
The system will track generally westward through the remainder of the forecast period. Through 36 hours, the system will steadily intensify to 45 knots just after afterall south of Da Nang.
Thereafter, increasing wind shear and rugged terrain over VN will steadily weaken the storm until dissipation by 72 hours.
