Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Oct 3, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)…is located about 1180 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)
What the computer models are showing
According to the NHC’s Advisory 20…Marie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward with little change in forward speed for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).>>>An elongated area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this disturbance has increased during the past few hours. Additional development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent>>>Another area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts northward offshore of the southern coasts of Mexico and Guatemala.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 208 NM southwest of Iwo To, Japan
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, Invest 90W is located in an environment conducive for further development with good equatorward outflow, low <15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface tempertures.
Global models are spread between tracking this disturbance into the area east of Honshu, Japan…to the northeast of Taiwan.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.