CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Goni)…is located approximately 684 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)…is located approximately 214 NM south-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam
Northeast PacificA broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of southern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Goni)
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, TY 22W continues tracking westward, through an environment that is highly favorable for additional rapid intensification, with very warm sea surface temperatures, and low 5-10 knot wind shear, and robust radial outflow. TY 22W will continue to track westward through 12 hours, then west-southwestward and southwestward. The system is forecast to continue rapid Intensification through 36 hours, under very favorable conditions, peaking at 130 knots at 48 hours.
Increasing wind shear in conjunction with weaker and less divergent outflow aloft will combine to begin a steady weakening trend with the system having 115 knots by 72 hours. Beyond 72 hours, the system will turn towards the west-northwest in response to slight weakening, with landfall in central Luzon in 84 hours…as a significant tropical cyclone.
After landfall and moving across the mountainous terrain of central Luzon, the system will re-emerge into the South China Sea prior to 96 hours. Albeit as a greatly weakened typhoon through 120 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Astani)
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, TD is tracking through a generally favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, good westward and equatorward outflow…offsetting moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear. TD 23W is forecast to turn northwestward over the next 12 hours…continuing through 72 hours. As this occurs, the system will begin to be impacted by the outflow from TY 22W. This, combined with moderate wind shear will offset the very warm sea surface temperatures. By 48 hours, the system will begin intensifying at a faster rate, increasing to 80 knots by 72 hours. Beyond 72 hours, the system will slow down while turning more northward, allowing it to quickly intensify from 72-96 hours…peaking at 100 knots.