CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)…is located approximately 109 NM southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam
Northeast PacificA broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Environmental conditions should be conducive for some gradual development this weekend and into early next week as the system slowly moves westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 21W (Molave)There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 234 NM northwest of Guam Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, Invest 99W is tracking northwestward, and currently in a favorable environment, with marginal upper level outflow, warm sea surface temperatures, and low 10-15 knot wind shear. Global models are in good agreement that 99W will gradually track westward…while consolidating and increasing in strength. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, environmental analysis reveals that the system is under a marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures and strong equatorward and westward outflow aloft, that are offset by moderate to strong 25-30 knot wind shear. TY 21W is forecast to continue tracking west-northwestward, making landfall over central Vietnam, approximately 100 NM south-southeast of Da Nang shortly after 12 hours.The strong wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures will lead to a gradual weakening to 85 knots by 12 hours. After landfall, the added interaction with the rugged terrain will rapidly erode the storm as it drags across Vietnam, Laos, and into Thailand…leading to dissipation within 36 hours or sooner.