CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19W (Saudel)…is located approximately 336 NM south-southeast of Hong Kong
Northeast PacificHere’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Western North Pacific
Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, overall, the environment surrounding TS 19W is favorable for continued development due to low 10-15 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and near radial upper level outflow. In the near term, the system will begin to slowly turn to a west-northwestward then northwestward track. The majority of the models are in fair agreement with some differences regarding the timing and duration of the poleward turn. Continued favorable environmental conditions indicate the storm should intensity to a peak of 60 knots by 36 hours. The system should maintain this intensity until it begins to interact with Hainan Island, which will cause the system to weaken slightly by 72 hours. In the extended forecast, TS 19W will continue to steadily weaken as it tracks westward. Landfall is expected by 96 hours, and then it will weaken as it traverses the rugged terrain of Vietnam.