Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)…is located about 1090 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

 

Northeast Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Marie)

What the computer models are showing According to the NHC’s Advisory 16…Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through most of the weekend. A turn toward the west-northwest is possible by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight, followed by weakening beginning on Saturday. This weakening trend will continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).   >>> A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico this weekend. Some development of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent >>> Another area of low pressure could form south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Gradual development of this system will be possible thereafter while it drifts near or south of southern coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent