Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Here’s what the computer models show According to the JTWC, TD 19W is tracking through a region favorable for further intensification, as evidenced by low 10-15 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and robust poleward and fair equatorward outflow aloft. TD 19W is forecast to track generally west-northwest over the next 36 hours as it approaches Luzon Island. As the system tracks over the rugged terrain of Luzon, it will steadily weaken to 40 knots before returning over water in the South China Sea. After 48 hours, the system will begin to gradually intensify once again due to continued warm sea surface temperatures, and reach 55 knots by 72 hours. This intensification will be offset slightly by marginal wind shear, which is forecast to increase to 20-25 knots. In the extended period, TD 16W is forecast to continue tracking westward and continue to gradually strengthen from 55 knots in 72 hours…to 65 knots by 120 hours.