CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)…is located approximately 70 NM north-northwest of Da Nang, Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone 01S (Alicia)…is located approximately 311 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia
Northeast Pacific
A broad and disorganized area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico is producing limited shower activity.
Here’s what the computer models are showing…for what’s being referred to as Invest 98E
Environmental conditions are still forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. By late next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Central Pacific
Here’s a satellite image of this area
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 25W (Vamco)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates favorable dynamics with robust dual channel outflow, with low 5-10 knot wind shear. However, the system is drifting over cool sea surface temperatures…which are offsetting the favorable outflow and warm seas.
TY Vamco will continue on its west-northwestward track, making landfall over central Vietnam northwest of Hue shortly after 12 hours. After landfall, the rugged terrain will rapidly erode the system down to 35 knots by 24 hours, and dissipation is expected by 36 hours…after it crosses Vietnam, central Laos, and into Thailand.
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates favorable dynamics with robust dual channel outflow, with low 5-10 knot wind shear. However, the system is drifting over cool sea surface temperatures…which are offsetting the favorable outflow and warm seas.
TY Vamco will continue on its west-northwestward track, making landfall over central Vietnam northwest of Hue shortly after 12 hours. After landfall, the rugged terrain will rapidly erode the system down to 35 knots by 24 hours, and dissipation is expected by 36 hours…after it crosses Vietnam, central Laos, and into Thailand.
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 01S (Alicia)
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the JTWC, the system is in a favorable environment, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, and strong westward and poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
The favorable environment will fuel steady intensification to a peak of 70 knots at 24-36 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the cyclone toward dissipation by 120 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 345 NM west-southwest of Diego Garcia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, Invest 93S is located in a marginal environment, with moderate poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by high 30+ knot wind shear.
Models are in good agreement that the system will continue to track westward towards Diego Garcia over the next hours, although with minimal intensification due to the hostile shear environment.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android wwwices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.
