CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Depression 02E…is located about 65 miles south-southeast of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala
Tropical Cyclone 02E
According to the NHC, the depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slow north or north-northeast motion is expected until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to cross the coast of Guatemala early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the system could become a tropical storm Sunday morning. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the cyclone is likely to dissipate over the mountains of Central America Sunday night or Monday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, and western Honduras, and 5 to 10 inches over northwest Nicaragua, Belize, and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz, and Oaxaca. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in El Salvador and southern Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area on Sunday.
There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as
Invest 92A, which is located approximately 16 NM northeast of Salalah AP, Oman
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a weakening low level low level circulation, with decreasing flaring convection overhead.
Environmental analysis indicates 92A in an area with low <15 knot wind shear, good equatorward outflow…however the system is currently over land.
Global models indicate that the disturbance will move westward, with at least one model maintaining intensity…even after 24 hours over land.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to
medium.
>>> Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance, being referred to as
Invest 93A, that’s located approximately 241 NM west of Cochin, India.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depict a broad, consolidating circulation with pockets of flaring convection on the northern periphery.
93A is currently in an environment favorable for development with low <15 knot wind shear, good equatorward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models indicate 93A will track northward and quickly intensify over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is
low.
Northeast Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 02E
NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
Central North Pacific
There are no active tropical cyclones
PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on June 1st.
2019 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin
The 2019 hurricane season featured five tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility, which is near the season average. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year.
Hurricane Erick was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the Central Pacific, moving into the basin from the east on July 30. Erick rapidly intensified to a major hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) later that day, then steadily weakened as it passed far south of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Tropical Storm Flossie entered the basin on August 3 and approached Hawaii from the east, eventually dissipating before reaching the islands. Tropical Depression 12-E entered the basin on September 4 and strengthened to Tropical Storm Akoni. Akoni was the first tropical cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names since Hurricane Walaka in 2018.
Tropical Depression Kiko entered the basin on September 24 and immediately dissipated. Tropical Storm Ema, the second cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names, developed southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands on October 12. Ema dissipated over the southern portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument shortly before crossing between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef.
Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Swells from Tropical Cyclone Barbara, which dissipated just before crossing into the Central Pacific basin, led to high surf along east facing shores of the state during July 6-9. Remnant moisture from Barbara also led to heavy rain across Maui and Hawaii Counties during July 8-11. Swells generated by Tropical Cyclones Erick and Flossie led to high surf along east and south facing shores during August 1-6. Moisture associated with Erick also contributed to heavy rain over Hawaii County on August 2, and across Kauai County during August 4-5.
Hurricane Season Outlook: NOAA’s 2019 hurricane season outlook issued on May 22, 2019, called for five to eight tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin, with a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The 2019 season started with an El Niño event that was expected to last through the fall. Instead, steady cooling commenced early in the summer leading to neutral conditions by the heart of the hurricane season.
Western North Pacific
There are no active tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Pacific
There are no active tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
North Indian Ocean
There are no active tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
South Indian Ocean
There are no active tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
Arabian Sea
There are no active tropical cyclones
Satellite image of this area
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