Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Eastern north Pacific

>>> Shower activity is limited in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph and some slow development is possible during the next few days before it moves into a drier and more stable airmass early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent >>> A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward to the south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent   There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 477 NM east-southeast of Palau Here’s was the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals flaring deep convection over a poorly defined low level circulation. Upper level analysis indicates low (5-10 knot) wind shear and an improving poleward outflow channel. Sea surface temperatures are favorable for development. Global models are in good agreement that invest 99W will continue to track west-northwestward as it develops. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12-18 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.   There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 131 NM southeast of Chuuk. Here’s was the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals flaring convection and low level cloud lines that wrap into an obscured low level center. The environment is favorable for further development with warm sea surface temperatures, low to moderate (10-20 knot) wind shear and divergent upper level flow aloft. Model solutions generally disagree on the timing and degree of intensification, with the GFS solutions providing the most aggressive intensification scenario. Despite this divergence in  intensity solutions, all model solutions are in general agreement that invest 90W will continue to track west to northwestward over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)   For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.