CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02B (Yaas) is located approximately 106 NM south-southwest of Kolkata, India
Eastern north Pacific
>>> An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico later this week. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development of this system thereafter as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…
low…30 percent
>>> Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico by this weekend. Gradual development of this system will also be possible early next week as it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…
low…20 percent
Tropical Cyclone 02B (Yaas)
Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 9)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the deep convective banding consolidating around a well-defined low level circulation center.
TC 02B resides in a marginally favorable environment with robust radial outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by low to moderate wind shear (15-20 knots). The system is forecast to remain in the marginally favorable environment for the next 12 hours up to landfall just before 26/12z.
TC 02B will remain at its peak intensity of 65 knots as it tracks north-northwest along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast. Shortly after 12 hours, TC 02B is expected to make landfall near the mouth of the estuary of Budhabalanga River, India.
After making landfall, the system will begin decaying due to land interaction and fully dissipate by 48 hours, if not shortly after.
Here’s a link to the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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