Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
May 18, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01A (Tauktae) is located approximately 140 NM northwest of Mumbai, India – Final Warning
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A low pressure system could form during the next day or so a few hundred hundred miles south of Guatemala and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, some slow development will be possible while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
One tropical storm, Andres, already formed earlier this month. The next named storm that develops this season will be Blanca.
Tropical Cyclone 01A (Tauktae) – Final Warning
Sustained 110 knot winds…with gusts to 135 knots (as of Warning Number 15)
Here’s what the computer models
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the deep convective bands are beginning to weaken slightly due to the continual land interaction along the Indian coast.
Analysis indicates favorable environmental conditions with strong poleward outflow, moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
TC 01A will begin turning to the northeast over the next 12 hours, as it tracks along the northwestern periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge to the east-southeast, until it makes landfall near Jafarabad, India through 12 hours.
The system is expected to decrease in intensity as it enters an area of greater wind shear in conjunction with terrain interaction and slightly cooler sea surface temperatures nearshore, as it tracks north.
After landfall, the cyclone will rapidly erode as it tracks across the rugged terrain and the higher wind shear, leading to the overall dissipation by 36 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
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