CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 03W is located approximately 374 NM south of Manila, Philippines – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 01A (Tauktae)…is located approximately 793 NM south-southeast of Karachi, Pakistan
Tropical Cyclone 03W – Final Warning
Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 9)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring, disorganized convection over a compact low-level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates marginal conditions with moderate (20 knots) westerly wind shear and weak outflow. Animated water vapor imagery reveals subsidence associated with an upper-level trough positioned over the central Philippines extending southwestward near Palawan Island.
TD 03W is expected to weaken as it tracks over Mindanao, and will dissipate by 24 hours due to increasing 20-25 knot wind shear, and upper-level convergence associated with the upper-level trough.
Tropical Cyclone 01A
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 4)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a rapidly consolidating system with deep convective banding over the western semicircle wrapping into an elongated, partially-exposed low-level circulation center, which supports the initial position with fair confidence.
Upper-level analysis indicates very favorable environmental conditions with robust equatorward outflow, improving poleward outflow, low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. TC 01A is tracking slowly poleward.
TC 01A is forecast to gradually turn north-northwestward through 72 hours, before recurving north-northeastward after 96 hours.
Numerical model guidance is in good agreement through 96 hours. After 96 hours, the models diverge slightly with increased uncertainty in the timing of the recurvature. Due to the excellent conditions, TC 01A is expected to intensify rapidly after 24 hours, with a peak of 110 knots by 72 hours.
Steady weakening will occur as the system approaches the Pakistan/India border, with more rapid weakening after the system makes landfall.
Here’s a link to the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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