Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 01W is located approximately 495 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines (Vongfong)

    Tropical Cyclone 01W (Vongfong) Sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to 45 knots…as of Warning 4 Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection offset southeast of the low level circulation center, with some weak flaring convection near the assessed center position. Environmental analysis reveals that the tropical depression lies in a favorable environment, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, moderate radial outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. TD 01W will track slowly north-northwestward over the next 24 hours, then by 36 hours reorient to a generally east to west track…towards the central Philippines. The system is expected to skirt the north shore of Samar Island before making landfall on the southeastern portion of Luzon within 72 hours…along with steady intensification, peaking at near 70 knot just prior to landfall. The system will likely move across the length of Luzon Island, and then reemerge over water in the Babuyuan Channel by 120 hours…steadily weakening in the process. Nonetheless, the system may reemerge over water as a weak tropical storm.   There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 97S, which is located in the South Indian Ocean Here’s what the computer models are showing The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.    

Northeast Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on May 15th.

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on June 1st. 2019 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin The 2019 hurricane season featured five tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility, which is near the season average. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane Erick was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the Central Pacific, moving into the basin from the east on July 30. Erick rapidly intensified to a major hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) later that day, then steadily weakened as it passed far south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Tropical Storm Flossie entered the basin on August 3 and approached Hawaii from the east, eventually dissipating before reaching the islands. Tropical Depression 12-E entered the basin on September 4 and strengthened to Tropical Storm Akoni. Akoni was the first tropical cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names since Hurricane Walaka in 2018. Tropical Depression Kiko entered the basin on September 24 and immediately dissipated. Tropical Storm Ema, the second cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names, developed southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands on October 12. Ema dissipated over the southern portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument shortly before crossing between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef. Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Swells from Tropical Cyclone Barbara, which dissipated just before crossing into the Central Pacific basin, led to high surf along east facing shores of the state during July 6-9. Remnant moisture from Barbara also led to heavy rain across Maui and Hawaii Counties during July 8-11. Swells generated by Tropical Cyclones Erick and Flossie led to high surf along east and south facing shores during August 1-6. Moisture associated with Erick also contributed to heavy rain over Hawaii County on August 2, and across Kauai County during August 4-5. Hurricane Season Outlook: NOAA’s 2019 hurricane season outlook issued on May 22, 2019, called for five to eight tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin, with a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The 2019 season started with an El Niño event that was expected to last through the fall. Instead, steady cooling commenced early in the summer leading to neutral conditions by the heart of the hurricane season.

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Vongfong) JTWC textual warning JTWC graphical map Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area   For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android wwwices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.