CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana) is located approximately 772 NM southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 25S (Iman) is located approximately 334 NM southeast of St. Denis
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)
Sustained 100 knot winds…with gusts to 125 knots (as of Warning Number 8)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a compact system that maintained deep, symmetric central dense overcast and a pinhole 5 NM eye.
TC 24S is in an overall favorable environment with good radial upper level outflow, low 10-15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
TC Habana is expected to move poleward, after 24 hours a ridge will build to the south and assume steering, turning the storm to a westward track, then after 96 hours, west-southwestward.
TC 24S is forecast to weaken primarily due to diminishing upper level outflow, and by 36-48 hours, will be reduced to 85 knots. After 48 hours, increased outflow from the ridge to the south will fuel a secondary intensification phase and by tau 120, will re-strengthen to 105 knots…possibly higher with rapid intensification.
Tropical Cyclone 25S (Iman)
Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 1)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, the system will continue tracking generally southeastward over the next 36 hours, and complete extratropical transition as an approaching trough overtakes the system.
Very strong >30 knot northwesterly wind shear is displacing deep convection to the southeast of the low-level circulation center. However, strong poleward upper-level outflow and passage over warm water are supporting storm intensity despite the noted shear.
Slow, although steady, weakening is expected during the 36 hour forecast period under the ongoing, competing influences of
strong wind shear, passage over cooler water…and favorable
upper-level diffluence.
Here’s a link to the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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