Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Mar 22, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 260 NM west of Cocos Islands, Australia
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring deep convection sheared slightly south of an elongated low level circulation, and a diurnally flaring convective banding feature wrapping in from the east.
95S is currently in a favorable environment with good poleward outflow, low 10 to 15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 95S will remain broad and weak before dissipating; however, the UKMET model stands as the outlier, depicting more intensification than the rest, potentially reaching warning criteria in the next several days.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remainsmedium.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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