CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 1317 NM west of Learmonth, Australia…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) is located approximately 196 NM northeast of Cairns, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)
Sustained 80 knot winds…with gusts to 100 knots (as of Warning Number 11)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has maintained deep convective signature and a ragged 30 NM eye, albeit with warming cloud tops in the central dense overcast.
The system is in a marginal environment with low 10-15 knot wind shear and good radial outflow, that are offset by subsidence along the southwest quadrant caused by the mid-latitude trough to the southwest…and tepid sea surface temperatures.
The marginal environment is expected to get worse with increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures, leading to gradual weakening and eventual dissipation by 120 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran)
Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 9)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the central dense overcast continued to deepen and expand. Additionally, a multispectral satellite image, showed overshooting cloud top and a dimple feature near the center.
The environment is overall favorable with low 10-15 knot wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures, partly offset by limited outflow aloft. TC 23P is quasi-stationary in a col between the near equatorial ridge extended from the north to southeast of the system…and the subtropical ridge to the west over Australia.
The northern ridge is expected to build and become the dominant steering mechanism and slowly nudge the system out of the col, and by 24 hours, drive it southeastward, passing just south of New Caledonia before around 78, and by 120 hours, should be to the northeast of New Zealand.
The marginally favorable environment will promote a slow intensification to a peak of 80 knots by 96 hours, as the system taps into increased poleward outflow as it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will begin to erode the cyclone down to 65 knots by 120 hours.
Here’s a link to the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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