Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Mar 14, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)is located approximately 781 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 22)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, TC 24S is weakening steadily under moderate to strong 20-30 knot west-northwesterly wind shear associated with an upper-level trough and dry air entrainment as revealed in animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and total precipitable water imagery. In addition, there’s increasingly disorganized convection structure with warming cloud top temperatures.
Vigorous poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures are offsetting the persistent wind shear and dry air entrainment somewhat, however, TC Habana is forecast to continue weakening through the forecast period, under increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment.
TC 24S is situated within a weak steering environment between a subtropical ridge (str) to the west and a str to the east, and is expected to track erratically over the next 24 hours then accelerate westward as a broad str builds to the south by 36 hours.
Continued high wind shear, increasing mid-level dry air entrainment, and the development of convergent flow aloft will serve to steadily weaken the system through the forecast period. There remains a possibility that the overall unfavorable conditions could result in dissipation as early as 72 hours. However, models are suggesting a small improvement in the moisture and shear environment, which combined with a track over warmer water, will allow for the system to remain a minimal tropical storm through 120 hours.
Due to the steady weakening trend, increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment, the system is now expected to dissipate by 96 hours or perhaps earlier. There is a low probability that the system may regenerate to gale-force strength after 96 hours as it tracks westward over warmer warmer, although upper-level conditions are expected to remain marginal.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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