Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Mar 12, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)is located approximately 767 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)
Sustained 110 knot winds…with gusts to 135 knots (as of Warning Number 18)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the system has peaked and is on the decline, with convection becoming more ragged.
Overall, the system remains insulated from the mid-latitude westerlies in a low shear environment. TC 24S is moving away from a region of warm sea surface temperatures, towards a region of cooler water, where it will remain until it turns toward the west. The cooling waters coupled with upwelling generated by the slow movement of the system…will induce steady weakening.
Between 24 and 48 hours, TC 24S will lose steering influence from a subtropical ridge (str) to the southeast and meander until it’s picked up by another str building from the southwest. This second anticyclone will nudge TC Habana westward and keep it equatorward of heavy wind shear.
As it resumes its westward track and leaves behind the cooler upwelled sea surface temperatures, it will move through marginally favorable waters and gradually weaken to near gale force by the end of the forecast. So long as the storm stays equatorward of the 22nd latitude, it will avoid heavy shear and decay primarily due to oceanographic factors.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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