Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Mar 10, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)is located approximately 1040 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)
Sustained 130 knot winds…with gusts to 160 knots (as of Warning Number 14) – Equivalent to a Super Typhoon
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the onset of an eyewall replacement cycle, with a large outer band nearly encircling the inner eyewall.
Environmental analysis indicates good radial outflow with low 10-15 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, resulting in a plateau in strength.
TC 24S has turned slightly to the west-northwest as it rounds the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge (str) to the south, although is expected to gradually turn toward the southwest throughout 72 hours…and toward the south through 120 hours.
Beyond 72 hours, a slowing of the forward motion is expected, with increased upwelling. This will result in colder sea surface temperatures, which will be the primary factor in the weakening of the system.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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