Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Jun 23, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 06W (Champi)…is located approximately 379 NM south of Iwo To, Japan
Eastern North Pacific
What the computer models are showing for what’s being referred to as Invest 95E
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico through the weekend, and interests in those areas should monitor its potential for development, as well as the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percentTropical Cyclone 06W (Champi)
Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 13)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has slightly expanded, otherwise, it maintained overall convective and wrap signatures.
The marginally favorable environment will fuel a gradual intensification to a peak of 65 knots by 72 hours, as poleward outflow increases due to the initial exposure to the prevailing westerlies. the peak may be higher and occur near 78 hours.
Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will slowly erode the cyclone. Concurrently by 72 hours, it will begin extra-tropical transition.
Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will slowly erode the cyclone.
Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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