Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Jun 17, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
Eastern North Pacific
Here’s what the computer models are showing for what’s being referred to as Invest 94E
Recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the area of low pressure located about a couple hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico is becoming better defined. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized.
A tropical depression is expected to form Friday morning while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the weekend, and tropical storm watches and warnings could be needed for a portion of the Mexican coastline Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…100 percent
Here’s what the computer models are showing
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 135 NM south-southwest of Pohnnpei
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a broad area of flaring convection with formative banding in the northwestern periphery.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment for development characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, dual channel outflow, and low to moderate (10-20 knot) wind shear.
Global models are in general agreement that invest 94W will continue to consolidate and strengthen, reaching warning criteria between 72 and 96 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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