CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONESTropical Cyclone 15P (Ana) is located approximately 190 NM south-southeast of Suva, Fiji
Tropical Cyclone 16P (Bina) is located approximately 159 NM north-northwest of Suva, Fiji – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 17P (Lucas) is located approximately 605 NM west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu
Tropical Cyclone 18S is located approximately 29 NM southeast of Port Hedland, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Ana)
Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 9)
According to the JTWC, depicts a broad area of flaring deep convection oriented east-west.
Upper-level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with moderate to strong 20-30 knot strong wind shear, offset by robust poleward outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures remain conducive.
TC 15P is forecast to accelerate south-southeastward to southeastward through 72 hours, with increasing 30-35 knot wind shear. Additionally, sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease after tau hours, which will lead to more rapid weakening and dissipation by 72 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 16P (Bina) – Final Warning
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 6)
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depict weakening deep convection flaring over and obscuring the low level circulation center.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain favorable through 12 hours, however, conditions will degrade rapidly after this time due to strong wind shear and interaction with TC 15P. TC 16P is expected to undergo binary interaction with TC 15P, which is currently located about 418 NM south-southeast. TC 16P is forecast to track southeastward through 12 hours. By 36 hours, TC 16P will approach TC 15P within about 150 NM as it rapidly weakens. by 48 hours, TC 16P will dissipate and become absorbed into TC 15P.
Tropical Cyclone 17P (Lucas)
Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 5)
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts low level cloud lines and spiral bands of convection wrapping into an obscured low level circulation center.
TC Lucas is tracking through a favorable environment with very warm sea surface temperatures, low 10-15 knot wind shear and robust poleward outflow aloft. These highly favorable conditions will lead to rapid intensification in the near term, and result in an intensity of 80 knots by 24 hours.
Thereafter, increasing wind shear will lead to a gradual weakening trend, as the system begins a generally southeastward to west-southwestward track. After 48 hours, TC Lucas will begin a generally southward track. High 25-30 knot wind shear will continue to weaken the system during this time. By 96 hours, the system will begin to dissipate over water due to high wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures, which will lead to full dissipation by 120 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 18S
Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 3)
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts spiral bands of convection wrapping into a well defined mid-level circulation center.
TC 18S is tracking over land through western Australia, however the environment is overall marginally favorable with low 10-15 knot wind shear and moderate upper level outflow aloft.
TC 18S is forecast to continue tracking over western Australia and intensify only minimally to 35 knots by 48 hours, at which point it will be approximately 40 NM south of Learmonth, Australia.
Thereafter, the system will enter the warm waters of the South Indian Ocean. Warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with continued low wind shear and moderate upper level support, will lead to gradual intensification to a peak intensity of 50 knots by 72 hours. Thereafter, moderate 20-25 knot wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures will lead to a gradual weakening trend with TC 18S tracking southward after 96 hours.
There’s a disturbance which is the remnants of 13S, which is located approximately 440 NM northeast of Mauritius
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad and disorganized low level circulation center.
Upper level analysis indicates remnants of 13S is in a moderately favorable environment for development with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, fair outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that remnants of 13S will track west-northwestward over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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