CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Ana)…is located approximately 162 NM northwest of Suva, Fiji
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Ana)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 1)
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts spiral bands of convection wrapping into a partially exposed low level circulation center.
The environment is favorable with warm sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 knot wind shear and moderate outflow aloft.
In the near term, the system will continue to strengthen due to continued favorable environmental conditions and make landfall over Viti Levu, Fiji just prior to 24 hours, with an intensity of 55 k knots.
Thereafter, the system will weaken slightly due to moderate 15-25 knot wind shear, as it tracks southward through 48 hours. After 48 hours the system will begin a southeastward track. High 30+ knot wind shear after 72 hours will lead to steady weakening and lead to dissipation by 120 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P, which is located approximately 214 NM north of Cairns, Australia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance has moved over water, and has a broad low level circulation center with convective banding wrapping around the northern semicircle, and flaring convection over the center.
Invest 94P is tracking through an overall favorable environment, characterized by good divergence aloft, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that the disturbance will track generally eastward as it consolidates and intensifies over the next few days.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98S, which is located approximately 170 NM east of Broome, Australia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a low level circulation center that is over land.
Upper level analysis shows a favorable environment for development, with low 10-15 knot wind shear and poleward outflow…with surrounding sea surface temperatures very warm.
These conditions are providing a conducive environment for development in the event that Invest 98S tracks over water.
Global models are in good agreement that 98S will track west-southwestward along the coast as it strengthens, consolidates, and later on moves into the South Indian Ocean.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
There’s a disturbance being referred to as Invest 99P, which is located approximately 371 NM northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation.
Environmental analysis shows a marginally favorable environment for development, with moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, good equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in general agreement that 99P will track eastward and intensify.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
There’s a disturbance which is the remnants of 13S, which is located approximately 798 NM east of Port Manthurin, Mauitius
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a disorganized low level circulation.
Environmental analysis shows a marginally favorable environment for development, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, good westward and poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that remnants of 13S will track westward over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.
