Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P, which is located approximately 129 NM northwest of Cairns, Australia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a weakly defined low level circulation center over land, with flaring convection to the north. Upper level analysis shows a marginally favorable environment for development, with fair outflow aloft, with low 5-10 knot wind shear. However, the system remains over land, which is hindering any significant development. Global models indicate 94P will track slowly northeastward over the Cape York Peninsula for the next 2-days or longer. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.   There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96P, which is located approximately 202 NM northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows fragmented deep convective banding wrapping into a defined low level circulation. Environmental analysis shows a favorable environment for development, with good divergence aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by moderate 15-20 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement that 96P will track generally eastward  and consolidate over the next few days. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.     There’s a third tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98P, which is located approximately 373 NM southwest of Darwin, Australia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a low level circulation center that is over land. Environmental analysis shows a marginally favorable environment for development, with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear and poleward outflow…with surrounding sea surface temperatures very warm. Global models are in good agreement that 98P will track generally west-southwestward along the coast as it strengthens, consolidates, and later on moves into the South Indian Ocean. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.  

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)