Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 13S – Final Warning Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 15) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery reveals a ragged and fully exposed low level circulation center, with the associated weak flaring convection sheared 130 NM to the southeast. Upper level analysis indicates the cyclone is under 25+ knot wind shear, as the storm motion has become out of phase with the upper level wind flow. TC 13S has fallen below the JTWC warning intensity criteria of 35 knots, and is not expected to recover. The remnants will propagate west-northwestward through a hostile environment. However, by 72 hours, as it drifts over warmer sea surface temperatures…there’s a chance of regeneration.  

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P, which is located approximately 187 NM south of Weipa, Australia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a defined low level circulation center over land, with disorganized convection. Upper level analysis shows a marginally favorable environment for development, with fair outflow aloft, with low <15 knot wind shear…however, the system is over land, which is hindering any significant development. Global models indicate 94P will track slowly northeastward over the Cape York Peninsula for the next 2-days or longer. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.   There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96P, which is located approximately 152 NM northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows fragmented deep convective banding wrapping into a defined low level circulation. Environmental analysis shows a favorable environment for development, with low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…offset by good poleward and equatorward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models are in general agreement that 96P will track generally eastward  and consolidate over the next 2-3 days. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.  

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)