Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 13S Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 13) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery reveals flaring deep convection over an obscured low level circulation. In addition, shallow banding is wrapping into a defined center, with limited convective banding over the southern semicircle. Environmental analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with good poleward outflow, offset by marginal sea surface temperatures…and dry air entrainment. TC 13S is expected to struggle under marginal conditions through 72 hours, however, the system should be able to intensify slightly in the extended forecast period…as sea surface temperatures warm.  

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P, which is located approximately 82 NM northeast of Mornington Island, Australia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation center, with disorganized convection located mostly over the northeast quadrant. Upper level analysis shows a marginally favorable environment for development, with good outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear. Global models indicate 94P traveling generally eastward over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

  Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)