Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 13S Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 11) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery reveals flaring convection has persisted over the past 12-hours. Upper level analysis depicts moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, fair westward outflow, and a developing poleward outflow channel. Warm sea surface temperatures remain conducive. The current environment will allow for limited intensification to 40 knots by 24 hours. Then, increasing wind shear will impact the system as it transits westward, tempering the intensity to 35 knots.

Near the end of the forecast period, TC 13S should slowly move equatorward and into warmer sea surface temperatures, allowing for a period of intensification to 45 knots.

  There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P, which is located approximately 75 NM northeast of Mornington Island, Australia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows cycling deep convection over a broad low level circulation, with additional flaring convection to the north. Upper level analysis shows a moderately favorable environment for development, with equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by moderate to strong 20-25 knot wind shear, Global models indicate 94P traveling generally eastward as it intensifies. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

  Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)