CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 13S is located 234 NM south of Cocos Island, Australia…in the South Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 13S
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 7A)
According to the JTWC…a partially exposed low level circulation center with flaring convection sheared over the western semicircle by moderate to high 25+ knot wind shear.
The high wind shear is offset by good poleward outflow, limited westward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. In the near term, TC 13S is expected to track south-southwestward. Persistent wind shear should limit intensification through 24 hours.
Afterwards, wind shear should decrease and enable TC 13S to slowly intensify to a peak of 45 knots by 72 hours. Between 48 and 72 hours, the system is expected to turn to a westward track. Along this track, the system is expected to slightly weaken due to cooling sea surface temperatures.
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 7A)
According to the JTWC…a partially exposed low level circulation center with flaring convection sheared over the western semicircle by moderate to high 25+ knot wind shear.
The high wind shear is offset by good poleward outflow, limited westward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. In the near term, TC 13S is expected to track south-southwestward. Persistent wind shear should limit intensification through 24 hours.
Afterwards, wind shear should decrease and enable TC 13S to slowly intensify to a peak of 45 knots by 72 hours. Between 48 and 72 hours, the system is expected to turn to a westward track. Along this track, the system is expected to slightly weaken due to cooling sea surface temperatures.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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