Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 10) According to the JTWC…reveals that TC 12S has steadily weakened as it moved inland. The majority of the deep convection has eroded over the low level circulation center with some flaring deeper convection over the northern semicircle. Environmental analysis depicts robust equatorward outflow, being offset by moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and the frictional terrain effects reflected in the weakening structure. Throughout the forecast period, the system is expected to track generally west-southwestward TC 12S will continue to weaken as it tracks over Madagascar prior to emerging over the Mozambique Channel prior to 24 hours. Within the channel, the warm sea surface temperatures, and low wind shear values will allow the system to steadily re-intensify to 80 knots by 72 hours. Afterwards, TC 12S will make landfall in southern Mozambique and land interaction will begin to weaken the system thereafter as it tracks inland.   Tropical Cyclone 13S Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 2) According to the JTWC…reveals limited deep convection sheared over the western quadrant of the struggling system due to strong 30-40 knot easterly vertical wind shear. Surface observations from the Cocos islands, 47 NM north-northwest of the current center, indicate sustained winds of 34-37 knots with gusts as high as 47 knots. The strong wind shear is offset by fair equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. TC 13S is expected to track slowly southward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge through 72 hours. After 72 hours, the system should turn gradually westward as a ridge builds to the south. Over the next 24 hours a ridge aloft extending from northwest Australia to southern Java will develop, and serve to push TC 13S onto a more southward track through 96 hours. TC 13S should slowly intensify after 36 hours, as wind shear decreases with a peak of 50 knots anticipated by 72 hours. Slight weakening is expected in the extended hours, as the system encounters increasing southeasterly flow.   Tropical Cyclone 14S – Final Warning

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 2) According to the JTWC…satellite imagery indicates the system has peaked and is on a weakening trend, with deep cycling convection being sheared to the south…and partially obscuring the low level circulation center. Animated radar data from the Broome and Port Hedland radars indicated a very weak rotation crossing the shore near Sandfire, Australia, TC 14S is in the process of making landfall along the northwest coast of Australia, and will continue tracking inland along the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge centered to the east. The system will steadily, but slowly, weaken over the Great Sandy desert and dissipate as a tropical cyclone by 36 hours, though remnants of the system are expected to continue tracking inland into west-central Australia.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)