CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)…which is located approximately 246 NM south of Diego Garcia, in the South Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 6) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts weakening convection with a sharp eastern (upshear) boundary and partially exposed outer bands on the east side of the larger circulation. Upper-level analysis indicates the system lies in a generally marginal environment with moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear, being offset by increasingly diffluent upper-level outflow, as the system begins to develop a secondary circulation aloft, strong enough to offset the impact from invest 93s, currently located approximately 365 NM to the southeast. The sharp upshear boundary of the deep convection confirms that the system is still experiencing relatively high easterly shear from the outflow associated with invest 93S to the southeast. TC 08S is forecast to begin Fujiwara interaction with invest 93S over the next 12 hours, with TC 08S continuing to track generally southeastward while 93S tracks west then north as it wraps into and becomes absorbed into TC 08S by 36 hours. After 36 hours, TC 08S will slow as it enters a weak steering environment. By 72 hours TC 08s accelerates westward through 120 hours. TC 08S is expected to intensify slightly in the near-term as wind shear is forecast to decrease slightly while outflow remains relatively strong, peaking at 50 knots within 12 hours. As invest 93S begins to Fujiwara and become absorbed, TC 08s will weaken fairly significantly to 40 knots. once the merging is complete and the system starts moving west in favorable environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear and moderate to strong upper-level outflow, steady intensification is expected…peaking at 70 knots by 120 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 498 NM southeast of Diego Garcia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection wrapping around a broad low level circulation center. Invest 93S is currently 350 NM east-southeast of TC 08S and has begun Fujiwara interaction. Global models are in general agreement that invest 93S will accelerate westward and become absorbed in TC 08S…within the next 24-36 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low. There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 97P, which is located approximately 59 NM northwest of Mornington Island, Australia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows formative cloud banding wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center…with flaring convection throughout. Invest 97P is currently in a favorable environment for development, with strong outflow aloft, warm sea surface temperatures…and low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement that invest 97P will track east-southeastward, while steadily intensifying. Near 24 hours, the system is expected to make landfall, becoming nearly stationary and starting to dissipate. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.