Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

South Indian Ocean

 

Tropical Cyclone 10S

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 3) According to the JTWC…TC 10S is tracking west-southwestward along the northwestern periphery of subtropical ridging to the southeast. The system continues to struggle to maintain core convection, primarily due to the lack of strong outflow channel, as it transits through an otherwise marginal environment, characterized by low 5-10 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. TC 10S is forecast to continue tracking generally west-southwest through 24 hours, then more westerly through 72 hours.

The passage of an upper-level trough to the south over the next 24-48 hours, should allow for improved poleward outflow, resulting in a short period of weak intensification to a peak of 40 knots by 24 hours. Thereafter, the combined effects of increasing wind shear, cooling sea surface temperatures and convergent flow aloft, will conspire to steadily weaken the system through 120 hours.

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99S, which is located approximately 532 NM southwest of Diego Garcia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals convective banding wrapping into an elongated low level circulation center, with flaring convection in the western semi-circle. invest 99s is in a favorable environment for tropical development, with robust westward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by strong 35-40 knot wind shear. Global models are in good agreement that invest 99S will track to the west-southwest as it slowly intensifies. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28-33 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is remains high.     There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P, which is located approximately 133 NM north-northeast of Cairns, Australia Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals convective banding wrapping into a well defined, small low level circulation center…with flaring convection in the western periphery. Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 91P is in a generally favorable environment for development, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, good southwestern outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models show little to no tropical development. However, historically the models do not handle systems of this small size well, therefore confidence in the current guidance is low. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.