Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) is located approximately 639 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) Sustained 115 knot winds…with gusts to 140 knots (as of Warning Number 6) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts tightly curved bands of deep convection wrapping into a 24 NM diameter eye.. TC 19S is tracking through a favorable environment with low 5-10 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperature and robust poleward and equatorward outflow. Despite these favorable conditions, TC Faraji will struggle to maintain the current 115 knots intensity over the next 24 hours, due to entrainment of dry air and a likely lower ocean heat content as a result of the nearly stationary storm motion.. After 24 hours, environmental conditions will support gradual re-intensification to 120 knots by 24 hours. Moderate 15-20 knot wind shear after 72 hours, coupled with cooling sea surface temperatures and  convergent upper level westerly winds to the south, will lead to further weakening to 70 knots by 120 hours. There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 230 NM north of Nadi, Fiji Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals elongated and disorganized deep convection. Environmental analysis shows a minimally favorable environment, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…offset by warm sea surface temperatures and good upper level divergence. Numerical models are in general agreement that invest 92P will consolidate as it tracks poleward within the South Pacific convergence zone. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.