Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Feb 6, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) is located approximately 619 NM southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji)
Sustained 75 knot winds…with gusts to 90 knots (as of Warning Number 4)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts tightly curved bands of deep convection wrapping into an obscured low level circulation center.
TC Faraji is tracking through a highly favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, robust equatorward and moderate poleward outflow aloft, and low 5-10 knot wind shear.
The system is currently in a complex, albeit weak, steering environment that has led to a relatively slow storm motion over the past 12 hours. This slow system motion, coupled with high favorable environmental conditions, will lead to rapid intensification in the near term to 90 knots by 12 hours.
After 12 hours, the storm will begin to track eastward. Continued favorable environmental conditions will lead to further intensification through 72 hours, at which time the system will reach a peak intensity of 110 knots within 48 hours.
Thereafter, TC 19S will track southeastward. During this time, moderate 15-25 knot wind shear will lead to a gradual weakening to 90 knots by 120 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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