CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 506 NM southwest of Cocos Island…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 23P is located approximately 82 NM east-southeast of Cairns, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)
Sustained 90 knot winds…with gusts to 100 knots (as of Warning Number 7)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates TC 22S has undergone rapid intensification over the past six hours, with the eye clearing out and enlarging to 30 NM. Convection has warmed although is showing signs of cooling once more.
Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and strong poleward and weak equatorward outflow. The system lies in a complex steering pattern between a near equatorial ridge to the northeast, and a subtropical ridge to the southwest.
Over the next 24 hours, the system is expected to slow and become quasi-stationary as the ridge to the south builds, blocking further southward movement. Between 24-48 hours, the system is expected to slowly turn towards the southeast, as the ridge rapidly transits eastward and weakens, allowing for the ridge to the north to resume the dominate steering role.
TC Marian has likely reached its peak intensity and is expected to maintain the current intensity through 12 hours. After this point the system will begin to slowly although steadily weaken as it encounters coolers sea surface temperatures and decreased outflow…as it becomes isolated from any distinct outflow channels.
Tropical Cyclone 23P
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 1)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates a partially exposed, well-defined low level circulation center, positioned along the eastern edge of a large cluster of persistent deep convection.
Here’s a link to the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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