Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Feb 27, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 405 NM southwest of Cocos Island…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)
Sustained 80 knot winds…with gusts to 100 knots (as of Warning Number 5)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating system, with an arc of strong convection present in the northern hemisphere, and much weaker convection present across the southern portion of the system, indicative of possible east-southeast wind shear.
The environment is relatively favorable with low to moderate 15-20 knot easterly wind shear, moderate equatorward and weak poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. Over the next 36 hours, TC 22S is forecast to continue tracking to the southwest.
Between 36 and 48 hours, the system is expected to become nearly quasi-stationary as the ridge to the south reaches its maximum strength and moves to a position due south of the TC.
By 72 hours, the ridge to the south begins to move to the east and eventually dissipates ahead of an approaching major shortwave trough, allowing for a stronger ridge to resume the dominate steering role, pushing the storm onto an accelerating southeasterly trajectory through the remainder of the forecast period.
TC Marian will steadily intensify over the next 36 hours, reaching a peak of 80 knots as wind shear decreases, and the upper-level outflow improves. After the system turns southeastward, sea surface temperatures will begin to cool and the outflow pattern becomes slightly less favorable…leading to a steady weakening trend through 120 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99P, which is located approximately 184 NM east of Cairns, Australia
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring disorganized deep convection associated with a broad ill-defined low level circulation center.
Image and animated radar imagery from the Willis Island radar show broad cyclonic turning with a weak low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment, with strong easterly wind shear, offset by enhanced poleward outflow…and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models indicate a slow, meandering southwestward track over the next 2-days, with slow development.
Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 25-30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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