Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Feb 26, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 210 NM southwest of Cocos Island…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)
Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 3)
Here’s what the computer models
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system continued to consolidate as the central dense overcast feature obscures the low level circulation.
Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment with low <15 knot wind shear and good equatorward outflow.
TC 22S reaches a peak intensity of 85 knots by 48 hours under favorable conditions. After 72 hours, an approaching mid-latitude trough and increasing wind shear from prevailing westerlies, begin a weakening trend for TC Marian…throughout the remainder of the forecast.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99P
, which is located approximately 153 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia
Here’s was the computer models
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring disorganized deep convection associated with a broad ill-defined low level circulation center.
Image and animated radar imagery from the Willis Island radar
show broad cyclonic turning with a weak low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment, with strong easterly wind shear, offset by enhanced poleward outflow…and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models indicate a slow, meandering southwestward track over the next 2-days, with slow development.
Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
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