Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Feb 11, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) is located approximately 884 NM southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji)
Sustained 80 knot winds…with gusts to 100 knots (as of Warning Number 14)
Here’s what the computer models
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows spiral bands of deep convection that wrapping into the low level circulation center.
TC Faraji is tracking southwestward and through a marginal environment, characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate poleward outflow…offset by moderate 10-15 knot wind shear (vws) and convergent flow along the northwestern periphery of the system. As the steering ridge continues to build, it will reposition farther west and begin to drive the storm generally westward after 24 hours.
Moderate wind shear, coupled with periods of convergent flow aloft will weaken the system to 45 knots by 72 hours. Thereafter, the steering ridge will reposition and begin to steer the system west-northwestward. Low 5-10 knot wind shear and continued warm sea surface temperatures after 72 hours will lead to gradual intensification to 50 knots by 120 hours.
There’s a sub-tropical depression being referred to as Invest 93S
, which is located approximately 92 NM north of Maxixe, Mozambique
Here’s was the computer models
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery show fragmented deep convective banding to the east, wrapping into the low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis shows an overall favorable environment with low 10-20 knot wind shear, burgeoning poleward aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Numerical models generally agree that Invest 93S will track west-southwestward and encounter land within the next 24-48 hours…with minimal overall development.
Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
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