Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Western North Pacific

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 97W, which is located approximately 288 NM southwest of Iwo To Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows building deep convection over a small lower level circulation…sitting on the edge of a frontal boundary. Invest 97W is currently in a marginally favorable environment for development, with excellent polar outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by unfavorable 20-30 knot wind shear. Global models are in good agreement that 97W will persist as a trough over the next couple of days…as it dissolves into the front to the north. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

North Indian Ocean

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as the Remnants of TC 05B, which is located approximately 120 NM north of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, Remnants of TC 05B is currently in a marginally favorable environment with good poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures, along with favorable 15-20 knot wind shear…offset by interaction with the Indian Peninsula. Global models are in good agreement that the system will track generally westward, persisting as a circulation into the Arabian Sea with some limited re-intensification over the next several days. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

South Indian Ocean

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96S, which is located approximately 156 NM south-southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, Invest 96S is in a marginally favorable environment for development, with good westward and equatorward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures…although being offset high 30-40 knot wind shear Global models are in good agreement that 95S will track generally south-southwestward, intensifying to warning threshold after several days…as it near the Australian coast near Learmonth. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.