Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 12) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has rapidly eroded after it made landfall along the eastern coast of northern Mozambique. The initial intensity of 45 knots is extrapolated from the maximum wind observation from Beira AP…when the TC was within 20 NM. TC Chalane will continue to rapidly erode s it drags across the rugged terrain, leading to dissipation within 12 hours…after it crosses into Zimbabwe.  

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 673 NM west of Cocos Islands Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation detached from a main area of convection to the southwest. Invest 93S is currently in a marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, poleward outflow aloft…offset by strong >25 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement that invest 93S will track generally southwestward with steady intensification over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is is high.   There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96S, which is located approximately 287 NM south of Diego Garcia. Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation with flaring convection overhead. Invest 96S is in a marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, westward and poleward outflow aloft, and moderate 15-25 knot wind shear. Global models are in general agreement that invest 96S will track slowly northeastward with slight intensification over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.