Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES

Tropical Cyclone 05B (Burevi)…is located 202 NM east of Cochin, India

Northeast Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this area Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Western North Pacific

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96W, which is located approximately 425 NM east of Palau Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows disorganized cyclonic turning over an obscured low level circulation, with deep convection in the northern periphery. Environmental analysis reveals the system is in a favorable environment with marginal outflow aloft, low 5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models are in general agreement that 96W will track northwestward with very little intensification. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05B (Burevi)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/05B_031800sair.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and supportive equatorward and poleward outflow aloft, offset by moderate15-20 knot wind shear. TC 05B will make a second landfall along the southern coast of India. Continued moderate wind shear and interaction with the underlying terrain will lead to a gradual weakening to 20 knots, while tracking once again over water after entering the Arabian Sea. The storm is then expected to move through an increasingly favorable environment for intensification. Decreasing wind shear coupled with improved upper level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures will lead to a gradual intensification to 45 knots by 120 hours.

South Indian Ocean

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 715 NM east of Diego Garcia…in the South Indian Ocean Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating, although poorly defined low level circulation center with deep convection in the western periphery. Invest 95S is currently in a moderately favorable environment with good equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by moderate 15-25 knot wind shear. Global models are in good agreement that 95S will track generally south-southwestward, with steady intensification over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

Arabian Sea

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