Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 1) According to the JTWC, the intensity is overall favorable with warm sea surface temperatures, fair poleward outflow and low 10-15 wind shear. TC 07S is tracking westward along the southern periphery of a near equatorial steering ridge to the north. TC Chalane is expected to continue tracking generally westward through the first 72 hours, as it makes landfall on Madagascar. Due to the mountainous terrain there, the storm is expected to weaken from frictional effects. After 72 hours, the system will turn southwestward and re-intensify in the Mozambique Channel.