Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 26W (Krovanh)

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 9) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a fairly broad but disorganized low-level circulation with multiple vortices rotating cyclonically around the center, particularly in the south and southeast quadrants, with flaring convection near the assessed center. The overall environment remains marginal, with moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear being offset by strong, divergent, poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. The system is tracking slowly west-southwestward along the southeast periphery of a low level subtropical ridge positioned to the northwest. TD 26W is forecast to continue tracking west-southwest through 12 hours, then west through the remainder of the forecast. Wind shear has slackened slightly over the past few hours, now roughly 20 knots from the east, and is forecast to continue to slacken through  24 hours.

However, upper-level outflow is expected to weaken at the same time, serving to offset the decreased wind shear. the competing and offsetting factors will ultimately lead to a period of steady intensity.

Wind shear is forecast to increase again after 24 hours, and combined with convergence upper-level flow, will steadily weaken the system, leading to dissipation over water south of Vietnam by 48 hours.

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Remnants of TC 05P, which is located approximately 305 NM southwest of Tonga Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, the system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features. animated multispectral satellite imagery supported by a microwave image, depicts a fully exposed low level circulation center with an asymmetric overall convective structure, and the majority of the deep convection offset to the south. The remnants of 05P are currently in an environment unfavorable for tropical development with excellent poleward outflow being heavily offset by unfavorable 40 to 50 knot wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures. Global models are in good agreement that the system will track south-southwestward while slowly weakening, eventually dissipating over the next several days. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30-45 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.