Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 26W (Krovanh)

Here’s what the computer models are showing Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 5) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a highly sheared, asymmetric, and disorganized system, with multiple exposed, low level vortices wrapping around the broader circulation center, and limited flaring convection displaced north and west of the low-level circulation center. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development, with moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures, and strong divergent, poleward outflow aloft. While the overall environment is supportive of additional development, the high wind shear is currently inhibiting the consolidation of the core, as reflected by the sheared nature of the convection. TD 26W is expected to continue tracking generally west-southwestward through 48 hours. Slow intensification is forecast through 24 hours as the winds associated with a northeast surge flow, begin to wrap around the southern side of the center, and robust divergent outflow aloft offsets moderate wind shear. A slight reorientation of the upper-level flow pattern will lead to more convergent outflow aloft, combined with persistent moderate wind shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures, and a separation from the northeast surge flow, will lead to a weakening trend from 36 hours through the remainder of the forecast period. As the system begins to weaken, it will also shift to a more westward track as it comes under the steering influence of the lower-level flow. Numerical model guidance is in good agreement with the overall track forecast scenario, with small spread through 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, model guidance shows increasing uncertainty, with the navgem, ukmet and gfs showing a track over far southern Vietnam, which the remainder of track guidance keeps the center of circulation well offshore southern Vietnam.  

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Remnants of TC 05P, which is located approximately 382 NM south-southeast of Suva, Fiji Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, the system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features. animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts a fully exposed low level circulation with an area of convection being sheared to the south-southeast. The system is in an unfavorable environment characterized by high 20-30 knot wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures. Global models generally agree that the system will slowly track south-southwest and slowly dissipate. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 40-45 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.