Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Western North Pacific

  Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Sustained 140 knot winds…with gusts to 170 knots (Super Typhoon) According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts an intensifying system, with a well-defined 14 NM eye and spiral bands of deep convection nearly surrounding the core. TC Yasa is tracking slowly eastward through an overall favorable environment with warm  sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and robust radial outflow. TC 05P is forecast to continue tracking generally eastward through 24 hours, before turning southeastward through 72 hours. The system is forecast to pass between the islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu near 48 hours, then continue tracking southeast through 72 hours. After this point, TC Yasa will turn southward, then southwestward. The system is forecast to steadily intensify, reaching a peak of 120 knots 24 hours under favorable environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear…and radial outflow After passing between the Fijian islands, disruption of the low-level flow, increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures combine to weaken the system to 60 knots by 120 hours, as it begins to transition to a subtropical system.  

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Zazu)