Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Western North Pacific

  Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)

Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts spiral bands of deep convection wrapping into an obscured low level circulation center. TC Yasa is tracking through an overall favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 knot wind shear and well established poleward and equatorward outflow aloft. Through 12 hours, TC 05P is forecast to track generally equatorward. By 24 hours, the system will begin a generally eastward track. During this initial track, TC Yasa will continue to intensify due to continued favorable environmental conditions. By 48 hours, the system will reach an intensity of 95 knots and begin to track generally southwestward. TC 05P will then reach a peak intensity of 100 knots by 72 hours, prior to making landfall along the northwest coast of Fiji. Interaction with the underlying terrain of the island and moderate 15-20 knot wind shear thereafter will weaken the system to 75 knots by 120 hours.   Tropical Cyclone 06P (Zazu)