Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts convective spiral bands wrapping into an obscured low level circulation center. TC 06P is tracking through a favorable environment with low 10-15 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and weak outflow aloft. The system will track generally southwestward through 24 hours. The environment will remain favorable for intensification and support gradual intensification to 45 knots. Gradual intensification will continue through 48 hours, and lead to a peak intensity of 55 knots by that time. Thereafter, the system will begin extratropical transition as it begins to weaken, due to high 30+ knot wind shear. By 96 hours, the system will weaken to 35 knots.