Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04P Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, environmental analysis reveals that the system is currently in a generally unfavorable environment, with high 20-30 knot westerly wind shear, offsetting robust equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. TC 04P is forecast to continue tracking southwest through 24 hours, while slowly intensifying in a marginally supportive environment. After 48 hours, TC 04P will absorb nearby invest 91P, forming a much larger tropical cyclone…which will drift slowly southward between Vanuatu and Fiji through 120 hours. After 36 hours as the two systems move towards each other, the upper level pattern will become for favorable for TC 04P, resulting in a period of steady intensification…reaching 80 knots by 120 hours.    

There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P, which is located approximately 425 NM north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, Invest 91P is in a favorable environment for development, with low 10-20 knot wind shear, excellent dual channel outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures, Global models are somewhat split that 91P will track generally east-southeast with little intensification, before it begins Fujiwhara interaction with Invest 90P. This system will eventually be absorbed, however the GFS model is resolving Invest 91P as the dominant circulation…intensifying it over the next several days. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.  

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Bongoyo) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center, with rapidly decaying convection. This is an elongated circulation with a swath of 35-40 knot winds over the southwest quadrant wrapping into a defined center. TC 02S has slowed…although is expected to accelerate westward through the rest of the forecast period. Models are in good agreement that the storm will continue to weaken due to cool sea surface temperatures and strong 25-30 knot wind shear…with dissipation expected within 36 hours.