Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES

Tropical Cyclone 05B (Burevi)…is located 240 NM east-northeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka

Northeast Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_5d0.png

Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_5d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Western North Pacific

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95W, which is located approximately 129 NM east-southeast of Legazpi, Philippines Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows low level cloud lines wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation. Environmental analysis reveals moderate 15-25 knot wind shear, excellent poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models are in general agreement that 95W will slowly track west-northwestward to northwestward over the next several days…with little intensification. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96W, which is located approximately 412 NM east-southeast of Palau Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows fully obscured low level circulation, with a large region of flaring deep convection overhead. Environmental analysis reveals the system is in a favorable environment with moderate radial outflow, low 10-15 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Global models are in general agreement that 96W will track northwestward with very little intensification. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 05B (Burevi)

Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, upper level analysis indicates favorable environment with low wind shear, enhanced poleward outflow…and warm sea surface temperatures that are conducive for further development. TC 05B should intensify to a peak of 45 knots by 24 hours under favorable conditions. After 24 hours, the system will track across northern Sri Lanka, which will weaken the storm…with dissipation occurring by 96 hours.

South Indian Ocean

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 412 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia…in the South Indian Ocean Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a weak and broad low level circulation with the flaring convection in the southwestern quadrant. Invest 95S is currently in a favorable environment with good equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures…and low 15 knot wind shear. Global models are in good agreement that 95S will track generally northwestward, with minimal intensification before turning southward and intensifying. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Arabian Sea

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android wwwices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.